NCAA Office Pool Tips
By Teddy Covers

It's become a right of passage among blue collar and white collar alike. Much like the development of fantasy sports, NCAA Tournament office pools has become a linchpin to office unity. Everyone from the brash sports guru to the 65-year-old secretary put their money on the table and take a shot at picking the perfect bracket during those last cold, dreary days of winter each March.

Personally speaking, I've been a part of a number of office pools with varying degrees of success. When I was 12, I picked the best bracket at my dad's workplace (I spent my winnings on a Veritex skateboard). After graduating college, I worked in the sports department of a newspaper. Everyone expected someone from our department to win it every year, and every year it was the quiet, withdrawn obituaries writer or the pressman who had been working there for 30 years that would take the prize. Here, the so-called "sports experts" would go down in flames, while a relative novice would come out of nowhere to snatch the money. How could it all go so wrong, I wondered?

First off, I learned what I needed when filling out my brackets was a good dose of humility. Just because you are "smarter," it doesn't mean you are "better." Sometimes it's dumb luck that wins the pool, but more often than not, a reasonable and sound approach can net the winnings. After all, that is how I won the pool when I was 12. I picked conservatively, wisely and didn't over-analyze my selections. So, after making some observations on my strategy as well as others' tactics, I came out with a few guidelines that could be helpful when filling out those NCAA Tournament brackets.

1) Identify a champion first

Fourteen of the last 17 champions have been a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. That narrows the field down to eight teams. The championship game provides the most points so you should start filling out your brackets with that selection.

2) Pick out the rest of the Final Four

When picking out the rest of the Final Four, keep a few things in mind.

A) At least one No. 1 seed has made the Final Four in 24 of the last 25 years.

B) There will be a Final Four sleeper. A No. 3 seed or lower has made the Final Four every year but one since 1979. Pick out a No. 3-6 seed that has performed the best in big-game situations as well as on the road this season and go with it.

C) But there won't be too many sleepers. In 13 of the last 14 years, if you added the seed number next to the four entrants, that number has not exceeded 11. So, if you have one No. 1 seed and, say, a No. 5 seed as your sleeper (5 + 1 = 6), the other two seeds can't add up to more than five. Again, it is just a way to narrow down the field a bit.

3) Find a power conference

Now that you have a Final Four set, start filling out the rest of the bracket around those four teams. First thing to do is go back and look at how the power conferences did outside of conference. Every year, the announcers are going to run a chart during the tournament that shows how each conference is doing and every year there is going to be one conference that stands above the rest. In each of the last eight years, one conference has had two teams in the Final Four. In five out of the last seven years, one conference has had three teams in the Elite Eight. And in 9 out of the last 12 years, one conference has had four teams in the Sweet 16. Identify a strong conference and fill in a few of those teams to advance.

4) Don't get caught up in making too many exotic picks

It's not necessary to distinguish yourself from the rest of the players. Picking a #16 seed to upset a #1 seed might be unique to your bracket, but also might sink your chances. Everyone knows every year there are going to be upsets. So picking out ones based on past results or haphazard logic is foolish. When starting to pick upsets, look at these teams on an individual basis. Determine who these teams played, how they performed against stronger opponents and where were these games held. If you look back at results from the current season and see Northwestern State has a couple victories against teams in the RPI Top 50 and took another strong Big East team down to the wire on the road, then picking that upset might not be such a bad idea.

5) Go with more experienced teams instead of more talented teams

Experience, especially NCAA experience, can not be understated. Teams that are accustomed to the spectacle that surrounds the tournament usually play much more focused and disciplined basketball than those who are experiencing the sights and sounds for the first time. Identify teams with veteran starters who have been to the Big Dance a time or two and then predict their success.

6) Strong road performances are crucial

Watching a team's regular-season home road dichotomy during the regular season can be a vital tool when picking out these brackets. Everyone is playing out of their usual confines, even the teams that have the opportunity to play in an arena close to their campus. Strong road teams are going to perform well under these circumstances. Look to ride teams into the Sweet 16 that has shown the ability to be unfazed on the road.

7) You don't have to be perfect to win

Filling out your brackets conservatively is OK. The advantage of staying away from too many wild picks is that when there are upsets, everyone else's bracket get messed up as well. If you are backing the favorite and Eastern Kentucky springs that upset, chances are most everyone else got burned too. Don't worry about making a few mistakes in any round. Put pride aside sometimes. I've seen brackets win that didn't even pick the right champion.

So, there you go. Hopefully, this advice will help you succeed with your office pools and restore some of your sports dignity.

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