NCAA Conference Tournaments
By Brent Crow

"March Madness" is the official term of the NCAA Division I-A men's basketball tournament, but the actual madness begins two weeks earlier. The conference tournaments are just as wild, if not wilder. The conference tournaments are completed in three or four days, with some teams playing each day. This is where the "Cinderellas" get their invites to the ball, where below .500 teams come from nowhere to win championships and the automatic berths that come with it. This is where bubbles are burst or teams earn the right to compete for a national title.

Wagering on conference tournaments is much different than any other time of the year and must be approached completely different as well. The major difference between the NCAA tourney and conference tourneys is the lack of time between games. There is at least one day between all rounds of the Big Dance, but teams in conference tourneys can play consecutive games within 18 hours or so. This also means that the oddsmakers must get out a line quickly. As a result, there is not much time for analysis before setting the number or betting the game once the line is out.

Another difference is the site of the games. For the most part, all conference tournament games are played at one site, although a few conferences award higher seeds with home games early in the parings. Some conferences play at neutral sites while others are played on the home court of a conference member. The site of the games must definitely be considered when handicapping conference tourney games, although home court advantage is not as prevalent as a regular season game, especially in later rounds.

Betting on conference tournament games also changes from round to round. First round games are different than later round contests, as some teams may have played more games than others due to seeding. It is always important to check the box scores and know the minutes played by each of the contributing players on every team.

In the first round of most conference tournaments, the matchups will involve lesser seeds. Many major conferences have more than eight teams, so the top four teams will sit this round out. I look to play the underdogs in the opening round, especially when you have teams with losing conference records installed as favorites. The bottom seeds in this round are often live dogs, as their opponents may take them lightly because they were 3-13 or something similar in conference play. These bottom feeders will give it their all in this game, as it is their last shot at salvaging a positive note to end an otherwise disappointing season.

In the next round, the top seeds get into action, and they will usually be heavily favored against the lesser seed that won the previous day. These big favorites can be vulnerable here as well, again likely to be overlooking their weaker opponents. A team that wins in the first round will also have some confidence from their victory the previous day and will have a small edge from playing a game in an unfamiliar building already as well. Be careful here of last-place teams that won as a big underdog in the first round, however, as they sometimes are just happy to have won a game and may not be up for the second-round contest.

In the semifinals, there are many variables at play. There will be "Cinderellas" alive in this round after two upset victories in their first two games. Usually these teams will continue to play well and are generally live dogs. However, it is very important to check the box scores and know the pace of their games in order to make sure they are not completely drained by their first two victories. There will also be matchups between two of the elite conference teams in this round. Again, I look for the live dogs in this case. Anytime there are two good teams playing in this round, they are going to be very familiar with each other from previous games, and if the game is on a neutral court, points will be at a premium.

In the finals, typically one of the top two teams will be involved and sometimes both will make it this far. There will also be several "Cinderellas" that have lasted to the final game, and this will be their only shot at an NCAA berth. At this point, I tend to throw out the records because these teams are on a roll and are playing with everything at stake. They will give a maximum effort. This is especially something I look for if they are not playing the clear top seed of the conference. The best scenario here would be a 6-8 seed facing a 3 or 4 seed in the finals. There isn't much difference between these teams usually, but the lesser seed will always be getting points. Also, the lower-seeded team could be playing a team that will certainly get an at-large bid and thus will be lacking the same motivation without everything on the line.

Another factor in conference tournament play that I look at carefully is the pointspread. Many times, a higher seed will seem like a bargain at a very short price of -1 or -2 against a lesser seed. The public usually jumps all over the favorite in these cases because it just looks too easy. Be careful here, as the oddsmakers are usually correct in the low numbers. Neutral site games are a completely different animal than regular season home court games, and the pointspreads that look too low are often the true price.

Because of this, I like to play against line movements in conference tournament games. From my years of experience plus many conversations with bookmakers and other handicappers, most people have trouble beating conference tournament games. The public and the sharp money is often on the wrong side of a game and when that causes the line to move 2 or 3 points in one direction, I always look to play against the move. Not only am I going against the majority opinion that seems to be incorrect most of the time, I am also getting a couple of extra points of value from the opening number.

Remember, there are many conference tournament games played each day. In fact, for a solid week, day after day, there are more betting opportunities in this period than any other week in college basketball. Pick out the best spots and play only the games you are most comfortable playing. There is no reason to bet every game on the board. Hopefully, the tips in this column will help you build your bankroll for the Big Dance.

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