Betting on March Madness
By Rob Veno

As a handicapper whose basis for selections consists almost exclusively on fundamental and situational analysis, I don’t change my methods during the frenzied betting period aptly nicknamed "March Madness". However, that being said, there are some additional situational factors that apply to this season ending span of college basketball which must be considered, and I’ll point out a few along with key fundamental aspects that have delivered success for me in handicapping these games.

Let’s start with fundamental handicapping and the importance of knowing the 65 teams in the field. With the advent of ESPN broadcasts which include each and every conference championship game, there’s no reason for the serious player to not have seen each of the NCAA tourney participants at least once. Along with team statistical information provided by numerous websites on the Internet, seek out the most balanced clubs. In my search for balanced squads I include all the major statistical categories: field goal shooting, field-goal shooting percentage allowed, three-point shooting, three-point shooting percentage allowed, free throw percentage, rebound margin, turnover margin and assist-to-turnover ratio. These categories will not only help you distinguish balanced teams from teams whose success is predicated heavily on one or two specific areas, but once the selections and game matchups are announced, it will provide an extremely useful handicapping tool.

With statistical matchups and a personal viewing of all the teams involved now in tow, you can begin seeking our plays versus the opening lines. Remember that the oddsmakers create the lines predominantly through their power rations and don’t necessarily factor in matchups. Another key in establishing your balanced squads and potential plays based on fundamental conclusions is strength of schedule. You cannot get carried away with glamorous looking or not so glamorous looking numbers until you’ve used the strength of schedule measuring stick. For an overall rating, I use RPI numbers, but strength of schedule numbers can be found in numerous places on the Internet. Strength of schedule must not only be measured overall but also in game-by-game situations, especially with mid-major and lesser conferences. Because these teams don’t get the opportunity to play quality opposition often, you must check individual game logs where they’ve played formidable foes and take those numbers into account. Also check for home/road results when looking at schedule results because there are teams that just don’t perform well away from home. And, of course, the tournament is almost exclusively played at neutral sites.

From a personnel perspective, you want to play teams with solid and veteran backcourt leadership. Avoid teams without good ball handlers, without an accurate long-range shooter and/or without backcourt experience or depth. Being quick to uncover them is the key. From a situational standpoint, I look at four main aspects right off the bat.

1. Which teams will be playing in close proximity to their home venue and thus have a home crowd advantage?
   
2. Do any of the matchups present a revenge situation? Conference rematches are easy to remember, but also be sure to check those November and December non-conference schedules also. There are times when teams met early on in preseason tournaments or made-for-TV matchups that can present a revenge opportunity.
   
3. Did a team close the season hot or cold? Oftentimes a team will disappoint during the conference tourney, which doesn’t necessarily indicate closing the season on a downer. These losses by teams headed for the NCAAs serve as motivation for the upcoming tournament and must be viewed in that light also. Remember that conference tournaments are second chances for teams who have had poor seasons. They generally tend to get up for this final chance at a berth in the Big Dance and many times pull upsets, so don’t get to down on a power team that falls unexpectedly. When analyzing the finish treat each team as its own unique entity and be sure to check both sides of the story. Going in with the objective of just labeling all teams as either hot for winning late or cold for losing lately can empty your tournament bankroll in a hurry.
   
4. Check for teams with at least three upper-class returning starters and six returning players overall which were either knocked out in the prior season’s first round, only made the NIT the previous season or underachieved the prior season. All three of these type teams will enter an NCAA Tournament with that added motivational edge and can be dangerous so be sure to seek them out at the onset.

While I’ve spent the majority of time here going over keys for handicapping winning sides, I’d be remiss if I didn’t reserve a paragraph for handicapping tournaments totals. This too can be a profitable way to go.

When choosing totals at tournament time, style matchups and venues become the major factors. It’s important to know right off the top that because of the importance of these games, they tend to take more of a defensive mode. Jitters and nervousness set in, and it’s not uncommon to see four and five minute scoring droughts, which can help in getting a total to go UNDER. Linesmakers will set numbers according to team styles, and if you have a pair of up-tempo teams playing each other, the line will reflect the projected fast pace. You need to refer to statistical matchups to see exactly what advantages each team will have or not have over the other.

It’s also extremely important to know if the team is predominantly a zone or man-to-man defensive team. Many handicappers fail to recognize the impact a zone defense has on scoring and will blindly play OVER just because one team or both is a high-scoring team. Zone defense forces an offense to take more time off the shot clock. It is also a negative for playing totals OVER because a zone defense can also reduce the number of fouls called, restricting the number of free throw attempt.

Venues are also important to know because of the different shooting backgrounds. It’s been standard during the recent years for handicappers to immediately investigate the potential for UNDER when teams play their first game in a football style stadium. The shooting backgrounds make it difficult for shooters to gauge depth perception because they’re not used to playing in these cavernous venues where the crowd is sometimes set back some 40 yards from the court. The cozy confines of many university gyms are much easier to shoot in, and the depth perception issue especially the first time out at stadium venues

This is not a mechanical situation, so don’t play it blindly, but with a solid handicap, you can produce winning plays either UNDER or OVER. Don’t forget that the linesmakers know this approach also and sometimes overcompensate by coming down too far with their opening totals.

A final factor I use religiously in handicapping totals is team’s free-throw shooting percentages. You must note that tournament games are either season-continuing or season-ending matchups, and teams will play them out that way. In any situation where a team is down by 10 or less in the last couple of minutes, you can expect them to foul at every opportunity. If teams have solid free throw shooting guards, this can lead to eight or more extra points pushing a game "over" the total. Poor foul shooters in these situations can have the exact opposite effect keeping games UNDER the total. Check the entire roster of both teams for free-throw shooting ability. Do the homework and put yourself in the best position to win and if you do that you’ll win more often than not.

A final bit of advice for a solid "March Madness" season is to have multiple outlets available so you can shop for the best number. You never know when that little half point will turn you into a winner, just because you took the time to take or not give it. Good luck and we hope all of these handicapping tips help turn you into a winner this postseason.

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